Should Vote by Mail be Required in All States?
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KEY THEMES
Politics
Economy
2020 Elections
location
United States
KEY SOURCES
National Conference of State Legislatures
News21
American Politics Quarterly
Political Science and Politics
American Politics Research
Mercatus Center
CATO Institute
JW v. Logan Settlement
MIT Election Data and Science Lab
The Social Science Journal
Election Law Journal
WHY THIS QUESTION MATTERS:
COVID-19 has impacted many facets of our lives including the way we vote. Many states have postponed primaries due to health concerns. Conversely, some states, like Wisconsin, made headlines by maintaining primaries as scheduled this month, despite the ongoing stay-at-home orders.
Looking ahead, several states are considering expanding absentee voting and some senators are calling for options to vote by mail for all states for this November’s Presidential Election. While mail-in voting is a long debated topic, it’s now being considered in a new light as the COVID-19 outbreak continues to create a new normal in the country.
The Civil War and the First Long-Distance Voting:
Here The first initiative to allow absentee voting occurred during the American Civil War. Because most voting eligible Americans were at war, they were unable to vote in person as required in all states at the time. Ahead of the 1864 reelection, which Lincoln won, 17 states made statutory changes necessary to assure citizens their franchise. In these states, both Union and Confederate soldiers were given the opportunity to cast ballots from their battlefield units and have them be counted back home. Federal law now requires states to provide by-mail/absentee ballots to military and overseas voters. However, laws for other absentee voters vary by state.
States began passing absentee ballot laws for civilians (not just soldiers) in the late 1800s. The first laws were intended to accommodate voters who were away from home or seriously ill on Election Day. The number of absentee ballots distributed was relatively small, and the administrative apparatus was not designed to distribute a significant number.
Which States Already have Vote by Mail:
As of today, five states conduct elections entirely by mail: Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, and Utah. In these states, ballots are mailed to voters in advance of the election day and individuals will have an “election period” to submit their vote.
When the voter marks their ballot, they will input it into a “secrecy envelope” and then into a separate mailing envelope, where they sign an affidavit. These envelopes may be submitted via mail or in person at designated drop off locations.
Voting in the context of COVID-19:
As the majority of the country remains under some form of stay at home orders this spring, all eyes are beginning to shift to potential in-person voting challenges in the fall for the 2020 Presidential Elections.
Several senators have indicated they intend to introduce the Natural Disaster and Emergency Ballot Act of 2020 to allow for national vote-by-mail as well as the expansion of early voting. While mail in voting is a long-debated topic, it’s now being considered more broadly in light of the COVID-19 outbreak.
Let’s take a look at the research behind both sides.
THE COMMON THREAD:
Both sides say that elections should be safe and fair.
FIND YOUR THREAD:
Supporters of vote by mail say this option will increase access, turnout, and help ensure personal safety. Opponents say that mail in voting may increase fraud and may not actually increase turnout in the long run.
Yes, we all states should have vote by mail.
Reason 01
Many states already have vote by mail options, with limited documented fraud.
Five states already run all-mail elections and at least 21 more (including 2020 swing states) already have mail in ballot options upon request. National Conference of State Legislatures
Between 2000 and 2012, the News21 election database only recorded 2,068 of alleged election fraud. While absentee ballots were the most prevalent type of fraud (24%), this still only amounted to 491 cases in 12 years. News21
Reason 02
Voting by mail increases voter access and turnout.
When Oregon implemented vote by mail elections early studies show that voter turnout increased by 10%. American Politics Quarterly
The main effect of mail in options is increasing the magnitude rather than changing the composition of voters -- meaning critics' concerns that mail-in options may favor one political party or the other may be unfounded. Political Science and Politics
Reason 03
Voting by mail is cheaper and safer.
Jurisdictions may save money because they no longer need to staff traditional polling places with poll workers and equip each location with voting machines. Oregon claims a savings of 30% by transitioning away from polling places. American Politics Research
Mail-in would also be safer in the context of COVID-19. It would be “irresponsible to require people to vote in person in the midst of a pandemic. Dramatically lower turnout would inevitably distort the results.” Mercatus
No, we should not require all states to have vote by mail.
Reason 01
Vote by mail increases risk of fraud.
Because the ballot is cast outside the public eye, the opportunities for coercion and voter impersonation are greater. Coercion by family members, employers, union leaders, religious leaders, or others might occur. National Conference of State Legislatures
Voter registration rolls are notoriously inaccurate, containing names of voters who are deceased, have moved, or otherwise have become ineligible. In 2018, California was sued over maintaining 1.5 million inactive voter files. CATO Institute, JW v. Logan Settlement
According to MIT Election Data, “even many scholars who argue that fraud is generally rare agree that fraud with voting by mail seems to be more frequent than with in-person voting.” MIT Election Data and Science Lab
Reason 02
A mail option doesn’t actually increase turnout over the long run.
In Oregon, voter turnout rose temporarily as a result of the novelty of the first vote by mail type of election, but subsequently reverted to previous levels. The Social Science Journal
Recent work indicates that vote by mail has mixed effects on turnout. Some negative effect on turnout in statewide general elections but a stronger positive effect in local (8%). Large (10%) positive effects in national elections are short-lived. Election Law Journal
Reason 03
It’s expensive to set up and requires rigor to maintain.
While cheaper in the long run, there are significant costs and challenges associated with the initial establishment of a vote-by-mail system. States will need up-to-date addresses, tracking systems, printing costs, and verification methods. It would be extremely difficult to implement a vote by mail system in all states ahead of the November election. (Please note that the researchers at Mercatus still recommend the Vote by Mail option despite the listed costs.) Mercatus
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Revisions:
On May 12th, 2020 reason three in the con section was updated to reflect that Mercatus Center makes clear that the Vote by Mail option is the option they would recommend despite the costs listed.